July 30, 2011

Doug Fister and 5 others: Detroit TigersSeattle Mariners

Detroit Tigers came out ahead by 6.3 WAR, most of it from Doug Fister.

Detroit Tigers
franchise trade score
97far better
Franchise trade score97
Rest of season98WAR in+2.0WAR out+0.3Net+1.7Net surplus$12.9M
Short term97WAR in+5.5WAR out+2.3Net+3.2Net surplus$28.1M
Control window97WAR in+9.6WAR out+3.3Net+6.3Net surplus$53.9M
Full tenure97WAR in+9.6WAR out+3.3Net+6.3Net surplus$53.9M

DET reached the World Series in 2012

Seattle Mariners
franchise trade score
3far worse
Franchise trade score3
Rest of season2WAR in+0.3WAR out+2.0Net-1.7Net surplus−$12.9M
Short term3WAR in+2.3WAR out+5.5Net-3.2Net surplus−$28.1M
Control window3WAR in+3.3WAR out+9.6Net-6.3Net surplus−$53.9M
Full tenure3WAR in+3.3WAR out+9.6Net-6.3Net surplus−$53.9M

Detroit Tigers received

Doug FisterP · 27 · pre-arb · 4 yrs control+10.0WAR (control) · 3 yr97
Rest of season98WAR+2.4FIP−62IP70Surplus$15.2M
Short term97WAR+5.8FIP−76IP232Surplus$36.9M
Control window96WAR+10.0FIP−79IP441Surplus$64.4M
Full tenure96WAR+10.0FIP−79IP441Surplus$64.4M

On the day: +4.4 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ -100, FIP− 90, salary $437K.

David PauleyP · 28 · arb 1 · 3 yrs control-0.4WAR (control) · 1 yr15
Rest of season8WAR-0.4FIP−140IP20Surplus−$1.6M
Short term14WAR-0.4FIP−140IP20Surplus−$1.6M
Control window16WAR-0.4FIP−140IP20Surplus−$1.6M
Full tenure17WAR-0.4FIP−140IP20Surplus−$1.6M

too little playing time to rate quality

On the day: +0.5 WAR over the prior three seasons, FIP− 123, salary $422K.

ReceivedStatusSalary that yearPaidWAR$/WARSurplus
Doug Fisterpre-arb$437K$4.7M+10.0$0.5M$64.4M
David Pauleyarb 1$422K$0.2M-0.4—−$1.6M
Total over the control window$4.9M+9.6$0.5M$62.8M

Seattle Mariners received

Casper WellsRF · 27 · pre-arb · 6 yrs control+1.7WAR (control) · 2 yr80
Rest of season86WAR+0.7wRC+107PA116Surplus$2.7M
Short term82WAR+1.7wRC+101PA432Surplus$6.0M
Control window79WAR+1.7wRC+101PA432Surplus$6.0M
Full tenure78WAR+1.7wRC+101PA432Surplus$6.0M

On the day: +4.2 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ 144, salary $418K.

Charlie FurbushP · 25 · pre-arb · 6 yrs control+2.0WAR (control) · 5 yr80
Rest of season7WAR-0.4FIP−134IP53Surplus−$2.0M
Short term69WAR+0.5FIP−104IP99Surplus$1.3M
Control window82WAR+2.0FIP−91IP228Surplus$5.0M
Full tenure81WAR+2.0FIP−91IP228Surplus$5.0M
Francisco Martinez—WAR (control)—

Not rated — never reached the majors.

Chance RuffinP · 23 · pre-arb · 6 yrs control-0.4WAR (control) · 2 yr23
Rest of season58WAR+0.0FIP−119IP14Surplus−$0.1M
Short term49WAR+0.0FIP−119IP14Surplus−$0.1M
Control window13WAR-0.4FIP−135IP24Surplus−$2.2M
Full tenure14WAR-0.4FIP−135IP24Surplus−$2.2M

too little playing time to rate quality

ReceivedStatusSalary that yearPaidWAR$/WARSurplus
Casper Wellspre-arb$418K$0.7M+1.7$0.4M$6.0M
Charlie Furbushpre-arbest.$3.2M+2.0$1.6M$5.0M
Chance Ruffinpre-arbest.$0.7M-0.4—−$2.2M
Total over the control window$4.6M+3.3$1.4M$8.8M

What this became

  1. Doug Fister → WSNDoug Fister, DET ⇄ WSN, 2013+3.0 WAR
  2. Steve Lombardozzi → BALBAL ⇄ DET, 2014-0.4 WAR
  3. Robbie Ray → ARIDidi Gregorius, ARI ⇄ DET ⇄ NYY, 2014+10.3 WAR
  4. Ian Krol → ATLCameron Maybin, ATL ⇄ DET, 2015+0.5 WAR
  5. Gabe Speier → ARIEnder Inciarte, ARI ⇄ ATL, 20150.0 WAR
  6. Cameron Maybin → LAACameron Maybin, DET ⇄ LAA, 2016+1.4 WAR
  7. Shane Greene → ATLShane Greene, ATL ⇄ DET, 2019+1.0 WAR
  8. Robbie Ray → TORRobbie Ray, ARI ⇄ TOR, 2020+0.2 WAR
  9. Gabe Speier → KCRGabe Speier, ARI ⇄ KCR, 2018+0.3 WAR
  10. Travis Bergen → TORTravis Bergen, ARI ⇄ TOR, 2021+0.2 WAR
  11. Shelby Miller → MILARI ⇄ MIL, 2025-0.0 WAR

Also that day

Zach Walters, ARI ⇄ WSN, 2011Arizona Diamondbacks ⇄ Washington NationalsDerrek Lee, BAL ⇄ PIT, 2011Baltimore Orioles ⇄ Pittsburgh PiratesChris Davis, BAL ⇄ TEX, 2011Baltimore Orioles ⇄ Texas RangersCLE ⇄ SFG, 2011Cleveland Guardians ⇄ San Francisco GiantsUbaldo Jiménez, CLE ⇄ COL, 2011Cleveland Guardians ⇄ Colorado RockiesJerry Hairston, MIL ⇄ WSN, 2011Milwaukee Brewers ⇄ Washington NationalsMike Aviles, BOS ⇄ KCR, 2011Boston Red Sox ⇄ Kansas City Royals

The web around this trade

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