July 31, 1998

Kevin Orie and 4 others: Chicago CubsMiami Marlins

Close to a wash — the margin never reached a full win.

Chicago Cubs
franchise trade score
23worse
Franchise trade score23
Rest of season88WAR in+0.3WAR out-0.7Net+1.0Net surplus$1.7M
Short term28WAR in+0.3WAR out+0.7Net-0.3Net surplus−$1.4M
Control window22WAR in+0.2WAR out+0.7Net-0.5Net surplus−$3.2M
Full tenure23WAR in+0.2WAR out+0.7Net-0.5Net surplus−$3.2M
Miami Marlins
franchise trade score
77better
Franchise trade score77
Rest of season12WAR in-0.7WAR out+0.3Net-1.0Net surplus−$1.7M
Short term72WAR in+0.7WAR out+0.3Net+0.3Net surplus$1.4M
Control window78WAR in+0.7WAR out+0.2Net+0.5Net surplus$3.2M
Full tenure77WAR in+0.7WAR out+0.2Net+0.5Net surplus$3.2M

Chicago Cubs received

Félix HerediaP · 23 · pre-arb · 4 yrs control+0.2WAR (control) · 4 yr51
Rest of season81WAR+0.3FIP−70IP18Surplus$0.4M
Short term67WAR+0.3FIP−89IP70Surplus$0.2M
Control window50WAR+0.2FIP−98IP163Surplus−$1.6M
Full tenure50WAR+0.2FIP−98IP163Surplus−$1.6M

On the day: +0.6 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ 178, FIP− 90, salary $225K.

Steve Hoff—WAR (control)—

Not rated — never reached the majors.

ReceivedStatusSalary that yearPaidWAR$/WARSurplus
Félix Herediapre-arb$225K$2.1M+0.2—−$1.6M
Total over the control window$2.1M+0.2—−$1.6M

Miami Marlins received

Justin SpeierP · 25 · pre-arb · 6 yrs control-0.8WAR (control) · 1 yr10
Rest of season5WAR-0.8FIP−194IP19Surplus−$1.4M
Short term9WAR-0.8FIP−194IP19Surplus−$1.4M
Control window10WAR-0.8FIP−194IP19Surplus−$1.4M
Full tenure11WAR-0.8FIP−194IP19Surplus−$1.4M

too little playing time to rate quality

On the day: no major-league record, salary $170K.

Kevin Orie3B · 26 · pre-arb · 5 yrs control+1.5WAR (control) · 2 yr75
Rest of season74WAR+0.1wRC+103PA195Surplus$0.1M
Short term77WAR+1.5wRC+92PA462Surplus$3.0M
Control window74WAR+1.5wRC+92PA462Surplus$3.0M
Full tenure73WAR+1.5wRC+92PA462Surplus$3.0M

On the day: +7.0 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ 101, salary $240K.

Todd Noel—WAR (control)—

Not rated — never reached the majors.

ReceivedStatusSalary that yearPaidWAR$/WARSurplus
Justin Speierpre-arb$170K$0.1M-0.8—−$1.4M
Kevin Oriepre-arb$240K$0.3M+1.5$0.2M$3.0M
Total over the control window$0.4M+0.7$0.6M$1.6M

What this became

  1. Justin Speier → ATLATL ⇄ MIA, 1999-0.2 WAR
  2. Félix Heredia → TORAlex Gonzalez, CHC ⇄ TOR, 2001+0.2 WAR
  3. Alex Gonzalez → WSNMatt Murton, BOS ⇄ CHC ⇄ MIN ⇄ WSN, 2004-0.5 WAR
  4. Doug Mientkiewicz → NYMDoug Mientkiewicz, BOS ⇄ NYM, 2005+0.6 WAR
  5. Brendan Harris → CINAustin Kearns, CIN ⇄ WSN, 2006-0.1 WAR
  6. Matt Murton → OAKJosh Donaldson, CHC ⇄ OAK, 2008-0.3 WAR
  7. Matt Murton → COLCOL ⇄ OAK, 2009-0.0 WAR
  8. Sean Gallagher → SDPRyan Webb, OAK ⇄ SDP, 2009-0.2 WAR
  9. Eric Patterson → BOSEric Patterson, BOS ⇄ OAK, 2010+0.1 WAR
  10. Josh Donaldson → TORJosh Donaldson, OAK ⇄ TOR, 2014+19.8 WAR

Also that day

BOS ⇄ MIL, 1998Boston Red Sox ⇄ Milwaukee BrewersMatt Kinney, BOS ⇄ MIN, 1998Boston Red Sox ⇄ Minnesota TwinsFreddy García, HOU ⇄ SEA, 1998Houston Astros ⇄ Seattle MarinersTodd Zeile, MIA ⇄ TEX, 1998Miami Marlins ⇄ Texas RangersFernando Tatís, STL ⇄ TEX, 1998St. Louis Cardinals ⇄ Texas RangersJuan Guzmán, BAL ⇄ TOR, 1998Baltimore Orioles ⇄ Toronto Blue JaysLeo Estrella, NYM ⇄ TOR, 1998New York Mets ⇄ Toronto Blue JaysOAK ⇄ TOR, 1998Athletics ⇄ Toronto Blue JaysDarryl Hamilton, COL ⇄ SFG, 1998Colorado Rockies ⇄ San Francisco GiantsMIL ⇄ NYM, 1998Milwaukee Brewers ⇄ New York MetsMark Grudzielanek, LAD ⇄ WSN, 1998Los Angeles Dodgers ⇄ Washington NationalsWillie Blair, ARI ⇄ NYM, 1998Arizona Diamondbacks ⇄ New York Mets

The web around this trade

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