July 31, 1998

Juan Guzmán and 2 others: Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays

Close to a wash — the margin never reached a full win.

franchise trade score

78better

Franchise trade score78

Rest of season85WAR in+1.1WAR out-0.3Net+1.4Net surplus$0.9M

Short term70WAR in+2.6WAR out-0.5Net+3.1Net surplus$0.1M

Control window77WAR in+1.1WAR out-0.5Net+1.6Net surplus$1.5M

Full tenure68WAR in+2.6WAR out-0.5Net+3.1Net surplus$0.1M

franchise trade score

22worse

Franchise trade score22

Rest of season15WAR in-0.3WAR out+1.1Net-1.4Net surplus−$0.9M

Short term30WAR in-0.5WAR out+2.6Net-3.1Net surplus−$0.1M

Control window23WAR in-0.5WAR out+1.1Net-1.6Net surplus−$1.5M

Full tenure32WAR in-0.5WAR out+2.6Net-3.1Net surplus−$0.1M

Baltimore Orioles received

Juan GuzmánP · 32 · FA eligible · 1 yr control+1.1WAR (control) · 1 yr78

Rest of season88WAR+1.1FIP−85IP66Surplus$0.4M

Short term69WAR+2.6FIP−100IP189Surplus−$1.1M

Control window75WAR+1.1FIP−85IP66Surplus$0.4M

Full tenure67WAR+2.6FIP−100IP189Surplus−$1.1M

On the day: +6.2 WAR over the prior three seasons, FIP− 134, salary $5.0M.

Received	Status	Salary that year	Paid	WAR	$/WAR	Surplus
Juan Guzmán	FA eligible	$5.0M	$2.1M	+1.1	$1.8M	$0.4M
Total over the control window			$2.1M	+1.1	$1.8M	$0.4M

Shannon Carter—WAR (control)—

Not rated — never reached the majors.

Nerio RodríguezP · 27 · pre-arb · 4 yrs control-0.5WAR (control) · 2 yr14

Rest of season12WAR-0.3FIP−158IP8Surplus−$0.5M

Short term13WAR-0.5FIP−196IP10Surplus−$1.2M

Control window14WAR-0.5FIP−196IP10Surplus−$1.2M

Full tenure15WAR-0.5FIP−196IP10Surplus−$1.2M

too little playing time to rate quality

On the day: +0.2 WAR over the prior three seasons, FIP− 100, salary $173K.

Received	Status	Salary that year	Paid	WAR	$/WAR	Surplus
Nerio Rodríguez	pre-arb	$173K	$0.3M	-0.5	—	−$1.2M
Total over the control window			$0.3M	-0.5	—	−$1.2M

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