August 31, 2020

Josh Naylor and 8 others: Cleveland GuardiansSan Diego Padres

Cleveland Guardians came out ahead by 9.7 WAR, most of it from Josh Naylor.

Cleveland Guardians
franchise trade score
97far better
Franchise trade score97
Rest of season8WAR in+0.0WAR out+0.7Net-0.7Net surplus−$4.5M
Short term89WAR in+2.4WAR out+0.7Net+1.6Net surplus$6.2M
Control window98WAR in+11.0WAR out+1.3Net+9.7Net surplus$55.8M
Full tenure98WAR in+11.0WAR out+1.3Net+9.7Net surplus$55.8M
San Diego Padres
franchise trade score
3far worse
Franchise trade score3
Rest of season92WAR in+0.7WAR out+0.0Net+0.7Net surplus$4.5M
Short term11WAR in+0.7WAR out+2.4Net-1.6Net surplus−$6.2M
Control window2WAR in+1.3WAR out+11.0Net-9.7Net surplus−$55.8M
Full tenure2WAR in+1.3WAR out+11.0Net-9.7Net surplus−$55.8M

Cleveland Guardians received

Owen Miller2B · 24 · prospect · 6 yrs control-0.3WAR (control) · 2 yr15
Rest of season47WAR0.0wRC+PA0Surplus$0.0M
Short term5WAR-0.8wRC+51PA202Surplus−$3.8M
Control window18WAR-0.3wRC+76PA674Surplus−$1.4M
Full tenure18WAR-0.3wRC+76PA674Surplus−$1.4M
Joey CantilloWAR (control)

Not rated — never reached the majors.

Gabriel AriasWAR (control)

Not rated — never reached the majors.

Josh Naylor1B · 23 · pre-arb · 6 yrs control+6.2WAR (control) · 5 yr86
Rest of season18WAR-0.0wRC+54PA66Surplus−$0.5M
Short term47WAR+0.1wRC+84PA316Surplus−$0.5M
Control window93WAR+6.2wRC+115PA1942Surplus$37.9M
Full tenure92WAR+6.2wRC+115PA1942Surplus$37.9M

On the day: -0.5 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ 90, salary $569K.

Cal QuantrillP · 25 · pre-arb · 6 yrs control+5.3WAR (control) · 4 yr88
Rest of season80WAR+0.2FIP−86IP15Surplus$1.1M
Short term89WAR+3.0FIP−95IP164Surplus$17.9M
Control window88WAR+5.3FIP−104IP450Surplus$28.0M
Full tenure87WAR+5.3FIP−104IP450Surplus$28.0M

On the day: +2.2 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ -49, FIP− 98, salary $572K.

Austin HedgesC · 28 · arb 1 · 3 yrs control-0.1WAR (control) · 3 yr22
Rest of season13WAR-0.1wRC+-67PA12Surplus−$1.7M
Short term35WAR+0.1wRC+38PA324Surplus−$4.0M
Control window16WAR-0.1wRC+40PA662Surplus−$8.6M
Full tenure16WAR-0.1wRC+40PA662Surplus−$8.6M

On the day: +3.3 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ 49, salary $3.0M.

ReceivedStatusSalary that yearPaidWAR$/WARSurplus
Owen Millerprospectest.$1.4M-0.3−$1.4M
Josh Naylorpre-arb$569K$11.8M+6.2$1.9M$37.9M
Cal Quantrillpre-arb$572K$8.8M+5.3$1.7M$28.0M
Austin Hedgesarb 1$3.0M$8.3M-0.1−$8.6M
Total over the control window$30.3M+11.0$2.7M$55.8M

San Diego Padres received

Greg AllenCF · 27 · pre-arb · 5 yrs control+0.1WAR (control) · 1 yr59
Rest of season77WAR+0.1wRC+243PA4Surplus$0.4M
Short term61WAR+0.1wRC+243PA4Surplus$0.4M
Control window58WAR+0.1wRC+243PA4Surplus$0.4M
Full tenure58WAR+0.1wRC+243PA4Surplus$0.4M

too little playing time to rate quality

On the day: +0.8 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ 67, salary $571K.

Mike ClevingerP · 30 · arb 1 · 3 yrs control+1.2WAR (control) · 2 yr59
Rest of season89WAR+0.6FIP−53IP19Surplus$2.9M
Short term75WAR+0.6FIP−53IP19Surplus$2.9M
Control window60WAR+1.2FIP−115IP133Surplus−$0.4M
Full tenure60WAR+1.2FIP−115IP133Surplus−$0.4M

On the day: +12.0 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ -100, FIP− 55, salary $4.1M.

Matt WaldronWAR (control)

Not rated — never reached the majors.

ReceivedStatusSalary that yearPaidWAR$/WARSurplus
Greg Allenpre-arb$571K$0.2M+0.1$0.4M
Mike Clevingerarb 1$4.1M$9.4M+1.2$7.7M−$0.4M
Total over the control window$9.6M+1.3$7.3M$0.0M

What this became

  1. Greg Allen → NYYGreg Allen, NYY ⇄ SDP, 2021+0.6 WAR
  2. Owen Miller → MILOwen Miller, CLE ⇄ MIL, 2022+0.2 WAR
  3. Cal Quantrill → COLCal Quantrill, CLE ⇄ COL, 2023+1.1 WAR
  4. Josh Naylor → ARIJosh Naylor, ARI ⇄ CLE, 2024+1.1 WAR
  5. Owen Miller → COLOwen Miller, COL ⇄ MIL, 2024+0.0 WAR
  6. Josh Naylor → SEAJosh Naylor, ARI ⇄ SEA, 2025+2.0 WAR

Also that day

LAA ⇄ SDP, 2020Los Angeles Angels ⇄ San Diego PadresTaylor Williams, SDP ⇄ SEA, 2020San Diego Padres ⇄ Seattle MarinersMIA ⇄ TOR, 2020Miami Marlins ⇄ Toronto Blue JaysMIL ⇄ PHI, 2020Milwaukee Brewers ⇄ Philadelphia PhilliesKevin Pillar, BOS ⇄ COL, 2020Boston Red Sox ⇄ Colorado RockiesBOS ⇄ CHC, 2020Boston Red Sox ⇄ Chicago CubsTodd Frazier, NYM ⇄ TEX, 2020New York Mets ⇄ Texas RangersRoss Stripling, LAD ⇄ TOR, 2020Los Angeles Dodgers ⇄ Toronto Blue JaysTy France, SDP ⇄ SEA, 2020San Diego Padres ⇄ Seattle MarinersArchie Bradley, ARI ⇄ CIN, 2020Arizona Diamondbacks ⇄ Cincinnati RedsMike Minor, OAK ⇄ TEX, 2020Athletics ⇄ Texas RangersRobbie Ray, ARI ⇄ TOR, 2020Arizona Diamondbacks ⇄ Toronto Blue JaysAndrew Chafin, ARI ⇄ CHC, 2020Arizona Diamondbacks ⇄ Chicago CubsCameron Maybin, CHC ⇄ DET, 2020Chicago Cubs ⇄ Detroit TigersNYM ⇄ TEX, 2020New York Mets ⇄ Texas RangersCIN ⇄ LAA, 2020Cincinnati Reds ⇄ Los Angeles AngelsStarling Marte, ARI ⇄ MIA, 2020Arizona Diamondbacks ⇄ Miami MarlinsMiguel Castro, BAL ⇄ NYM, 2020Baltimore Orioles ⇄ New York Mets

The web around this trade

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