January 13, 2018

Gerrit Cole and 4 others: Houston AstrosPittsburgh Pirates

Houston Astros came out ahead by 6.8 WAR, most of it from Gerrit Cole.

Houston Astros

franchise trade score

98far better

Franchise trade score98

Rest of season100WAR in+5.4WAR out+2.1Net+3.3Net surplus$43.5M

Short term100WAR in+12.4WAR out+4.6Net+7.8Net surplus$84.7M

Control window98WAR in+12.4WAR out+5.6Net+6.8Net surplus$86.1M

Full tenure97WAR in+12.4WAR out+5.6Net+6.8Net surplus$86.1M

HOU reached the World Series in 2019

Pittsburgh Pirates

franchise trade score

2far worse

Franchise trade score2

Rest of season0WAR in+2.1WAR out+5.4Net-3.3Net surplus−$43.5M

Short term0WAR in+4.6WAR out+12.4Net-7.8Net surplus−$84.7M

Control window2WAR in+5.6WAR out+12.4Net-6.8Net surplus−$86.1M

Full tenure3WAR in+5.6WAR out+12.4Net-6.8Net surplus−$86.1M

Houston Astros received

Gerrit ColeP · 28 · arb 2 · 2 yrs control+12.4WAR (control) · 2 yr99

Rest of season99WAR+5.4FIP−66IP200Surplus$57.4M

Short term100WAR+12.4FIP−62IP413Surplus$116.8M

Control window98WAR+12.4FIP−62IP413Surplus$116.8M

Full tenure98WAR+12.4FIP−62IP413Surplus$116.8M

On the day: +9.7 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ 4, FIP− 95, salary $6.8M.

Received	Status	Salary that year	Paid	WAR	$/WAR	Surplus
Gerrit Cole	arb 2	$6.8M	$19.7M	+12.4	$1.6M	$116.8M
Total over the control window			$19.7M	+12.4	$1.6M	$116.8M

Pittsburgh Pirates received

Joe MusgroveP · 26 · pre-arb · 5 yrs control+5.2WAR (control) · 3 yr93

Rest of season93WAR+1.8FIP−89IP115Surplus$12.9M

Short term94WAR+4.4FIP−87IP286Surplus$33.6M

Control window92WAR+5.2FIP−86IP325Surplus$35.9M

Full tenure91WAR+5.2FIP−86IP325Surplus$35.9M

On the day: +1.6 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ -100, FIP− 101, salary $571K.

Michael FelizP · 25 · pre-arb · 4 yrs control-0.1WAR (control) · 4 yr27

Rest of season13WAR-0.4FIP−102IP48Surplus−$2.8M

Short term29WAR-0.0FIP−105IP104Surplus−$1.7M

Control window27WAR-0.1FIP−103IP113Surplus−$4.1M

Full tenure28WAR-0.1FIP−103IP113Surplus−$4.1M

On the day: +0.1 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ -100, FIP− 87, salary $576K.

Colin Moran3B · 26 · pre-arb · 6 yrs control+0.8WAR (control) · 4 yr70

Rest of season86WAR+0.7wRC+102PA465Surplus$3.9M

Short term69WAR+0.4wRC+98PA968Surplus$1.7M

Control window71WAR+0.8wRC+99PA1527Surplus$1.9M

Full tenure71WAR+0.8wRC+99PA1527Surplus$1.9M

On the day: -0.0 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ 223, salary $550K.

Jason MartinCF · 23 · prospect · 6 yrs control-0.3WAR (control) · 2 yr15

Rest of season47WAR0.0wRC+—PA0Surplus$0.0M

Short term19WAR-0.2wRC+72PA40Surplus−$1.6M

Control window13WAR-0.3wRC+50PA51Surplus−$2.9M

Full tenure14WAR-0.3wRC+50PA51Surplus−$2.9M

too little playing time to rate quality

Received	Status	Salary that year	Paid	WAR	$/WAR	Surplus
Joe Musgrove	pre-arb	$571K	$3.9M	+5.2	$0.8M	$35.9M
Michael Feliz	pre-arb	$576K	$3.5M	-0.1	—	−$4.1M
Colin Moran	pre-arb	$550K	$4.5M	+0.8	$5.4M	$1.9M
Jason Martin	prospect	est.	$1.2M	-0.3	—	−$2.9M
Total over the control window			$13.1M	+5.6	$2.3M	$30.7M

What this became

Joe Musgrove → SDPJoe Musgrove, NYM ⇄ PIT ⇄ SDP, 2021+6.5 WAR
David Bednar → NYYDavid Bednar, NYY ⇄ PIT, 2025+2.6 WAR
Brian Sanchez → MIALake Bachar, MIA ⇄ PIT, 2026— WAR

The web around this trade

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player · size = WAR delivered, colour = percentile ( worse better) franchise trade 0 players · 0 trades · 0 clubs

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