January 17, 2008

Willy Aybar and 2 others: Atlanta BravesTampa Bay Rays

Willy Aybar stayed 3 seasons and was the best of it, and it still came out close to even.

franchise trade score

16far worse

Franchise trade score16

Rest of season4WAR in-0.0WAR out+1.4Net-1.4Net surplus−$6.9M

Short term11WAR in-0.0WAR out+1.4Net-1.4Net surplus−$6.2M

Control window16WAR in-0.0WAR out+1.3Net-1.3Net surplus−$4.6M

Full tenure17WAR in-0.0WAR out+1.3Net-1.3Net surplus−$4.6M

franchise trade score

84far better

Franchise trade score84

Rest of season96WAR in+1.4WAR out-0.0Net+1.4Net surplus$6.9M

Short term89WAR in+1.4WAR out-0.0Net+1.4Net surplus$6.2M

Control window84WAR in+1.3WAR out-0.0Net+1.3Net surplus$4.6M

Full tenure83WAR in+1.3WAR out-0.0Net+1.3Net surplus$4.6M

TBR reached the World Series in 2008

Atlanta Braves received

Jeff RidgwayP · 28 · pre-arb · 5 yrs control-0.0WAR (control) · 1 yr33

Rest of season20WAR-0.0FIP−144IP10Surplus−$0.4M

Short term31WAR-0.0FIP−144IP10Surplus−$0.4M

Control window33WAR-0.0FIP−144IP10Surplus−$0.4M

Full tenure34WAR-0.0FIP−144IP10Surplus−$0.4M

too little playing time to rate quality

On the day: -0.7 WAR over the prior three seasons, FIP− 1348.

Received	Status	Salary that year	Paid	WAR	$/WAR	Surplus
Jeff Ridgway	pre-arb	est.	$0.4M	-0.0	—	−$0.4M
Total over the control window			$0.4M	-0.0	—	−$0.4M

Willy Aybar3B · 25 · pre-arb · 4 yrs control+1.3WAR (control) · 3 yr76

Rest of season88WAR+1.4wRC+97PA362Surplus$6.5M

Short term80WAR+1.4wRC+98PA698Surplus$5.8M

Control window75WAR+1.3wRC+94PA1007Surplus$4.2M

Full tenure74WAR+1.3wRC+94PA1007Surplus$4.2M

On the day: +2.3 WAR over the prior three seasons, salary $401K.

Chase Fontaine—WAR (control)—

Not rated — never reached the majors.

Received	Status	Salary that year	Paid	WAR	$/WAR	Surplus
Willy Aybar	pre-arb	$401K	$2.7M	+1.3	$2.1M	$4.2M
Total over the control window			$2.7M	+1.3	$2.1M	$4.2M

Nobody acquired here was traded on.

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