November 3, 2003

Billy Wagner and 3 others: Houston AstrosPhiladelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies came out ahead by 3.7 WAR, most of it from Billy Wagner.

Houston Astros

franchise trade score

12far worse

Franchise trade score12

Rest of season50WAR in0.0WAR out0.0Net0.0Net surplus$0.0M

Short term51WAR in-0.5WAR out+1.3Net-1.8Net surplus$1.2M

Control window12WAR in-2.4WAR out+1.3Net-3.7Net surplus−$5.1M

Full tenure10WAR in-2.4WAR out+3.8Net-6.1Net surplus−$7.8M

HOU reached the World Series in 2005

Philadelphia Phillies

franchise trade score

88far better

Franchise trade score88

Rest of season50WAR in0.0WAR out0.0Net0.0Net surplus$0.0M

Short term49WAR in+1.3WAR out-0.5Net+1.8Net surplus−$1.2M

Control window88WAR in+1.3WAR out-2.4Net+3.7Net surplus$5.1M

Full tenure90WAR in+3.8WAR out-2.4Net+6.1Net surplus$7.8M

Houston Astros received

Brandon DuckworthP · 27 · pre-arb · 4 yrs control-0.8WAR (control) · 2 yr7

Rest of season47WAR0.0FIP−—IP0Surplus$0.0M

Short term11WAR-0.5FIP−148IP39Surplus−$1.6M

Control window6WAR-0.8FIP−154IP56Surplus−$3.0M

Full tenure6WAR-0.8FIP−154IP56Surplus−$3.0M

On the day: +2.5 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ 31, FIP− 107, salary $325K.

Taylor BuchholzP · 22 · prospect · 6 yrs control-0.5WAR (control) · 1 yr23

Rest of season47WAR0.0FIP−—IP0Surplus$0.0M

Short term45WAR0.0FIP−—IP0Surplus$0.0M

Control window17WAR-0.5FIP−113IP113Surplus−$1.5M

Full tenure18WAR-0.5FIP−113IP113Surplus−$1.5M

Ezequiel AstacioP · 24 · prospect · 6 yrs control-1.1WAR (control) · 2 yr13

Rest of season47WAR0.0FIP−—IP0Surplus$0.0M

Short term45WAR0.0FIP−—IP0Surplus$0.0M

Control window5WAR-1.1FIP−145IP87Surplus−$3.4M

Full tenure5WAR-1.1FIP−145IP87Surplus−$3.4M

Received	Status	Salary that year	Paid	WAR	$/WAR	Surplus
Brandon Duckworth	pre-arb	$325K	$0.9M	-0.8	—	−$3.0M
Taylor Buchholz	prospect	est.	$0.3M	-0.5	—	−$1.5M
Ezequiel Astacio	prospect	est.	$0.7M	-1.1	—	−$3.4M
Total over the control window			$1.9M	-2.4	—	−$7.9M

Philadelphia Phillies received

Billy WagnerP · 32 · FA eligible · 1 yr control+1.3WAR (control) · 1 yr65

Rest of season47WAR0.0FIP−—IP0Surplus$0.0M

Short term66WAR+1.3FIP−53IP48Surplus−$2.8M

Control window64WAR+1.3FIP−53IP48Surplus−$2.8M

Full tenure79WAR+3.8FIP−58IP126Surplus−$0.2M

On the day: +4.7 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ -100, FIP− 65, salary $8.0M.

Received	Status	Salary that year	Paid	WAR	$/WAR	Surplus
Billy Wagner	FA eligible	$8.0M	$8.0M	+1.3	$6.0M	−$2.8M
Total over the control window			$8.0M	+1.3	$6.0M	−$2.8M

What this became

Taylor Buchholz → COLTaylor Buchholz, COL ⇄ HOU, 2006+3.0 WAR

The web around this trade

loading the web…

player · size = WAR delivered, colour = percentile ( worse better) franchise trade 0 players · 0 trades · 0 clubs

All HOU ⇄ PHI trades How the scores work