July 11, 2002 · Cash considerations

Carl Pavano and 7 others: Miami MarlinsWashington Nationals

Miami Marlins came out ahead by 4.1 WAR, most of it from Carl Pavano.

Miami Marlins

franchise trade score

94far better

Franchise trade score94

Rest of season96WAR in+1.0WAR out-0.8Net+1.8Net surplus$6.0M

Short term94WAR in+2.8WAR out+0.1Net+2.7Net surplus$11.3M

Control window94WAR in+2.7WAR out-1.4Net+4.1Net surplus$16.5M

Full tenure96WAR in+7.0WAR out-1.4Net+8.4Net surplus$35.7M

MIA won the World Series in 2003

Washington Nationals

franchise trade score

6far worse

Franchise trade score6

Rest of season4WAR in-0.8WAR out+1.0Net-1.8Net surplus−$6.0M

Short term6WAR in+0.1WAR out+2.8Net-2.7Net surplus−$11.3M

Control window6WAR in-1.4WAR out+2.7Net-4.1Net surplus−$16.5M

Full tenure4WAR in-1.4WAR out+7.0Net-8.4Net surplus−$35.7M

Miami Marlins received

Graeme LloydP · 35 · signed (FA) · 1 yr control+0.1WAR (control) · 1 yr49

Rest of season58WAR+0.1FIP−80IP26Surplus−$0.8M

Short term49WAR+0.1FIP−80IP26Surplus−$0.8M

Control window48WAR+0.1FIP−80IP26Surplus−$0.8M

Full tenure49WAR+0.1FIP−80IP26Surplus−$0.8M

too little playing time to rate quality

On the day: +1.6 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ 31, FIP− 90, salary $3.0M.

Mike Mordecai3B · 35 · FA eligible · 1 yr control+0.4WAR (control) · 1 yr57

Rest of season84WAR+0.4wRC+83PA86Surplus$1.0M

Short term20WAR-0.2wRC+66PA187Surplus−$1.1M

Control window67WAR+0.4wRC+83PA86Surplus$1.0M

Full tenure9WAR-0.7wRC+61PA279Surplus−$3.0M

too little playing time to rate quality

On the day: -0.1 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ 84, salary $500K.

Carl PavanoP · 26 · arb 2 · 2 yrs control+3.3WAR (control) · 2 yr89

Rest of season86WAR+0.6FIP−86IP62Surplus$1.2M

Short term91WAR+3.3FIP−89IP263Surplus$11.8M

Control window87WAR+3.3FIP−89IP263Surplus$11.8M

Full tenure92WAR+8.6FIP−86IP485Surplus$34.9M

On the day: +2.7 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ -77, FIP− 106, salary $1.3M.

Justin WayneP · 23 · pre-arb · 6 yrs control-1.2WAR (control) · 3 yr6

Rest of season13WAR-0.2FIP−120IP24Surplus−$0.7M

Short term12WAR-0.5FIP−135IP29Surplus−$1.7M

Control window5WAR-1.2FIP−139IP62Surplus−$3.7M

Full tenure5WAR-1.2FIP−139IP62Surplus−$3.7M

Don Levinski—WAR (control)—

Not rated — never reached the majors.

Received	Status	Salary that year	Paid	WAR	$/WAR	Surplus
Graeme Lloyd	signed (FA)	$3.0M	$1.3M	+0.1	—	−$0.8M
Mike Mordecai	FA eligible	$500K	$0.2M	+0.4	—	$1.0M
Carl Pavano	arb 2	$1.3M	$2.0M	+3.3	$0.6M	$11.8M
Justin Wayne	pre-arb	est.	$0.7M	-1.2	—	−$3.7M
Total over the control window			$4.2M	+2.7	$1.6M	$8.3M

Washington Nationals received

Cash—WAR (control)—

Not rated — cash.

Cliff FloydLF · 30 · FA eligible · 1 yr control-0.3WAR (control) · 1 yr14

Rest of season7WAR-0.3wRC+67PA57Surplus−$3.6M

Short term13WAR-0.3wRC+67PA57Surplus−$3.6M

Control window14WAR-0.3wRC+67PA57Surplus−$3.6M

Full tenure15WAR-0.3wRC+67PA57Surplus−$3.6M

too little playing time to rate quality

On the day: +11.8 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ 146, salary $6.5M.

Wilton Guerrero2B · 28 · FA eligible · 1 yr control-0.5WAR (control) · 1 yr13

Rest of season6WAR-0.5wRC+-4PA67Surplus−$1.7M

Short term11WAR-0.5wRC+-4PA67Surplus−$1.7M

Control window13WAR-0.5wRC+-4PA67Surplus−$1.7M

Full tenure14WAR-0.5wRC+-4PA67Surplus−$1.7M

too little playing time to rate quality

On the day: -1.1 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ 96, salary $850K.

Claudio VargasP · 24 · prospect · 6 yrs control-0.7WAR (control) · 3 yr23

Rest of season47WAR0.0FIP−—IP0Surplus$0.0M

Short term71WAR+0.9FIP−114IP114Surplus$2.2M

Control window9WAR-0.7FIP−130IP245Surplus−$2.9M

Full tenure10WAR-0.7FIP−130IP245Surplus−$2.9M

Received	Status	Salary that year	Paid	WAR	$/WAR	Surplus
Cliff Floyd	FA eligible	$6.5M	$2.7M	-0.3	—	−$3.6M
Wilton Guerrero	FA eligible	$850K	$0.4M	-0.5	—	−$1.7M
Claudio Vargas	prospect	est.	$0.9M	-0.7	—	−$2.9M
Total over the control window			$4.0M	-1.4	—	−$8.2M

What this became

Cliff Floyd → BOSCliff Floyd, BOS ⇄ WSN, 2002+1.4 WAR

Also that day

CLE ⇄ STL, 2002Cleveland Guardians ⇄ St. Louis Cardinals Juan Encarnación, CIN ⇄ MIA, 2002Cincinnati Reds ⇄ Miami Marlins

The web around this trade

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player · size = WAR delivered, colour = percentile ( worse better) franchise trade 0 players · 0 trades · 0 clubs

All MIA ⇄ WSN trades How the scores work