July 27, 2021

Rafael Montero and 4 others: Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners

4 pieces changed hands and the ledger barely moved.

Houston Astros
franchise trade score
89far better
Franchise trade score89
Rest of season16WAR in+0.6WAR out+1.0Net-0.5Net surplus−$1.4M
Short term92WAR in+1.9WAR out+0.4Net+1.5Net surplus$12.1M
Control window90WAR in+1.9WAR out+0.4Net+1.5Net surplus$12.1M
Full tenure31WAR in+1.4WAR out+0.4Net+1.0Net surplus−$18.5M

HOU won the World Series in 2022

Seattle Mariners
franchise trade score
11far worse
Franchise trade score11
Rest of season84WAR in+1.0WAR out+0.6Net+0.5Net surplus$1.4M
Short term8WAR in+0.4WAR out+1.9Net-1.5Net surplus−$12.1M
Control window10WAR in+0.4WAR out+1.9Net-1.5Net surplus−$12.1M
Full tenure69WAR in+0.4WAR out+1.4Net-1.0Net surplus$18.5M

Houston Astros received

Kendall GravemanP · 31 · signed · 1 yr control+0.4WAR (control) · 1 yr66
Rest of season83WAR+0.4FIP−86IP23Surplus$1.0M
Short term69WAR+0.4FIP−86IP23Surplus$1.0M
Control window66WAR+0.4FIP−86IP23Surplus$1.0M
Full tenure66WAR+0.4FIP−86IP23Surplus$1.0M

too little playing time to rate quality

On the day: -0.7 WAR over the prior three seasons, FIP− 98, salary $1.3M.

Rafael MonteroP · 31 · arb 2 · 2 yrs control+1.6WAR (control) · 2 yr85
Rest of season64WAR+0.2FIP−60IP6Surplus−$0.0M
Short term87WAR+1.6FIP−67IP74Surplus$8.7M
Control window84WAR+1.6FIP−67IP74Surplus$8.7M
Full tenure53WAR+1.0FIP−99IP184Surplus−$21.9M

On the day: +1.3 WAR over the prior three seasons, FIP− 82, salary $2.3M.

ReceivedStatusSalary that yearPaidWAR$/WARSurplus
Kendall Gravemansigned$1.3M$0.5M+0.4$1.0M
Rafael Monteroarb 2$2.3M$3.7M+1.6$2.3M$8.7M
Total over the control window$4.2M+1.9$2.2M$9.7M

Seattle Mariners received

Player to be named laterWAR (control)

Not rated — never reached the majors.

Joe SmithP · 37 · signed (FA) · 2 yrs control+0.6WAR (control) · 1 yr69
Rest of season86WAR+0.6FIP−64IP18Surplus$0.8M
Short term72WAR+0.6FIP−64IP18Surplus$0.8M
Control window68WAR+0.6FIP−64IP18Surplus$0.8M
Full tenure68WAR+0.6FIP−64IP18Surplus$0.8M

too little playing time to rate quality

On the day: +1.3 WAR over the prior three seasons, salary $4.0M, signed through 2022.

Abraham Toro1B · 25 · pre-arb · 5 yrs control-0.2WAR (control) · 2 yr19
Rest of season81WAR+0.5wRC+99PA253Surplus$1.7M
Short term18WAR-0.2wRC+78PA605Surplus−$3.1M
Control window19WAR-0.2wRC+78PA605Surplus−$3.1M
Full tenure20WAR-0.2wRC+78PA605Surplus−$3.1M

On the day: -0.4 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ 44.

ReceivedStatusSalary that yearPaidWAR$/WARSurplus
Joe Smithsigned (FA) thru 2022$4.0M$1.7M+0.6$2.9M$0.8M
Abraham Toropre-arbest.$1.0M-0.2−$3.1M
Total over the control window$2.7M+0.4−$2.4M

What this became

  1. Abraham Toro → MILAbraham Toro, MIL ⇄ SEA, 2022+0.3 WAR
  2. Rafael Montero → ATLATL ⇄ HOU, 2025-0.2 WAR
  3. Abraham Toro → OAKChad Patrick, MIL ⇄ OAK, 2023+0.7 WAR
  4. Rafael Montero → DETJim Jarvis, ATL ⇄ DET, 2025+0.1 WAR

The web around this trade

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player · size = WAR delivered, colour = percentile ( worse better) franchise trade 0 players · 0 trades · 0 clubs
All HOU ⇄ SEA tradesHow the scores work