January 19, 2015

Dexter Fowler and 2 others: Chicago CubsHouston Astros

Close to a wash — the margin never reached a full win.

Chicago Cubs

franchise trade score

74better

Franchise trade score74

Rest of season83WAR in+2.6WAR out+2.0Net+0.6Net surplus$1.1M

Short term96WAR in+6.8WAR out+4.2Net+2.6Net surplus$23.2M

Control window71WAR in+2.6WAR out+2.0Net+0.6Net surplus$1.1M

Full tenure93WAR in+6.8WAR out+4.2Net+2.6Net surplus$23.2M

CHC won the World Series in 2016

Houston Astros

franchise trade score

26worse

Franchise trade score26

Rest of season17WAR in+2.0WAR out+2.6Net-0.6Net surplus−$1.1M

Short term4WAR in+4.2WAR out+6.8Net-2.6Net surplus−$23.2M

Control window29WAR in+2.0WAR out+2.6Net-0.6Net surplus−$1.1M

Full tenure7WAR in+4.2WAR out+6.8Net-2.6Net surplus−$23.2M

Chicago Cubs received

Dexter FowlerCF · 29 · FA eligible · 1 yr control+2.6WAR (control) · 1 yr89

Rest of season94WAR+2.6wRC+110PA690Surplus$14.1M

Short term97WAR+6.8wRC+118PA1241Surplus$47.8M

Control window86WAR+2.6wRC+110PA690Surplus$14.1M

Full tenure93WAR+6.8wRC+118PA1241Surplus$47.8M

On the day: +6.5 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ 126, salary $9.5M.

Received	Status	Salary that year	Paid	WAR	$/WAR	Surplus
Dexter Fowler	FA eligible	$9.5M	$8.7M	+2.6	$3.3M	$14.1M
Total over the control window			$8.7M	+2.6	$3.3M	$14.1M

Houston Astros received

Luis Valbuena3B · 30 · FA eligible · 1 yr control+2.0WAR (control) · 1 yr86

Rest of season93WAR+2.0wRC+108PA493Surplus$13.7M

Short term94WAR+4.2wRC+115PA835Surplus$25.2M

Control window84WAR+2.0wRC+108PA493Surplus$13.7M

Full tenure90WAR+4.2wRC+115PA835Surplus$25.2M

On the day: +5.6 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ 118, salary $4.2M.

Dan StrailyP · 27 · arb 1 · 3 yrs control-0.0WAR (control) · 1 yr31

Rest of season18WAR-0.0FIP−115IP17Surplus−$0.6M

Short term29WAR-0.0FIP−115IP17Surplus−$0.6M

Control window32WAR-0.0FIP−115IP17Surplus−$0.6M

Full tenure32WAR-0.0FIP−115IP17Surplus−$0.6M

too little playing time to rate quality

On the day: +1.1 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ 120, FIP− 143.

Received	Status	Salary that year	Paid	WAR	$/WAR	Surplus
Luis Valbuena	FA eligible	$4.2M	$3.9M	+2.0	$1.9M	$13.7M
Dan Straily	arb 1	est.	$0.5M	-0.0	—	−$0.6M
Total over the control window			$4.3M	+2.0	$2.2M	$13.0M

What this became

Dan Straily → SDPHOU ⇄ SDP, 20160.0 WAR

Also that day

Corey Knebel, MIL ⇄ TEX, 2015Milwaukee Brewers ⇄ Texas Rangers

The web around this trade

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player · size = WAR delivered, colour = percentile ( worse better) franchise trade 0 players · 0 trades · 0 clubs

All CHC ⇄ HOU trades How the scores work