January 8, 2011

Chris Archer and 7 others: Chicago CubsTampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays came out ahead by 15.7 WAR, most of it from Chris Archer.

Chicago Cubs
franchise trade score
5far worse
Franchise trade score5
Rest of season96WAR in+3.3WAR out+1.9Net+1.4Net surplus$8.3M
Short term80WAR in+4.3WAR out+2.6Net+1.6Net surplus$1.8M
Control window1WAR in+5.2WAR out+20.9Net-15.7Net surplus−$107.3M
Full tenure1WAR in+5.2WAR out+21.9Net-16.7Net surplus−$108.1M
Tampa Bay Rays
franchise trade score
95far better
Franchise trade score95
Rest of season4WAR in+1.9WAR out+3.3Net-1.4Net surplus−$8.3M
Short term20WAR in+2.6WAR out+4.3Net-1.6Net surplus−$1.8M
Control window99WAR in+20.9WAR out+5.2Net+15.7Net surplus$107.3M
Full tenure99WAR in+21.9WAR out+5.2Net+16.7Net surplus$108.1M

Chicago Cubs received

Matt GarzaP · 28 · arb 1 · 3 yrs control+5.7WAR (control) · 3 yr88
Rest of season97WAR+3.3FIP−76IP198Surplus$17.0M
Short term90WAR+4.3FIP−86IP302Surplus$11.9M
Control window88WAR+5.7FIP−89IP373Surplus$9.9M
Full tenure87WAR+5.7FIP−89IP373Surplus$9.9M

On the day: +7.9 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ -100, FIP− 109, salary $6.0M.

Fernando PerezCF · 28 · pre-arb · 5 yrs control0.0WAR (control)45
Rest of season47WAR0.0wRC+—PA0Surplus$0.0M
Short term45WAR0.0wRC+—PA0Surplus$0.0M
Control window45WAR0.0wRC+—PA0Surplus$0.0M
Full tenure45WAR0.0wRC+—PA0Surplus$0.0M

never reached the majors for CHC

On the day: +0.6 WAR over the prior three seasons.

Zac RosscupP · 23 · prospect · 6 yrs control-0.5WAR (control) · 4 yr17
Rest of season47WAR0.0FIP−—IP0Surplus$0.0M
Short term45WAR0.0FIP−—IP0Surplus$0.0M
Control window11WAR-0.5FIP−129IP47Surplus−$3.4M
Full tenure12WAR-0.5FIP−129IP47Surplus−$3.4M
ReceivedStatusSalary that yearPaidWAR$/WARSurplus
Matt Garzaarb 1$6.0M$25.2M+5.7$4.5M$9.9M
Fernando Perezpre-arbest.$0.0M0.0—$0.0M
Zac Rosscupprospectest.$2.1M-0.5—−$3.4M
Total over the control window$27.3M+5.2$5.3M$6.4M

Tampa Bay Rays received

Sam FuldLF · 30 · pre-arb · 6 yrs control+2.0WAR (control) · 3 yr77
Rest of season88WAR+1.9wRC+91PA346Surplus$9.7M
Short term83WAR+2.5wRC+89PA453Surplus$11.3M
Control window75WAR+2.0wRC+78PA653Surplus$9.0M
Full tenure74WAR+2.0wRC+78PA653Surplus$9.0M

On the day: +0.3 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ 9, salary $418K.

Chris ArcherP · 23 · prospect · 6 yrs control+14.4WAR (control) · 6 yr88
Rest of season47WAR0.0FIP−—IP0Surplus$0.0M
Short term53WAR+0.1FIP−84IP29Surplus−$0.0M
Control window96WAR+14.4FIP−87IP967Surplus$86.0M
Full tenure96WAR+15.4FIP−87IP1063Surplus$86.8M
Brandon GuyerLF · 25 · pre-arb · 6 yrs control+4.7WAR (control) · 5 yr84
Rest of season78WAR+0.2wRC+58PA43Surplus$0.3M
Short term63WAR+0.2wRC+62PA50Surplus$0.0M
Control window90WAR+4.7wRC+110PA978Surplus$20.0M
Full tenure89WAR+4.7wRC+110PA978Surplus$20.0M
Robinson ChirinosC · 27 · pre-arb · 6 yrs control-0.2WAR (control) · 1 yr21
Rest of season12WAR-0.2wRC+69PA60Surplus−$1.2M
Short term20WAR-0.2wRC+69PA60Surplus−$1.2M
Control window21WAR-0.2wRC+69PA60Surplus−$1.2M
Full tenure22WAR-0.2wRC+69PA60Surplus−$1.2M

too little playing time to rate quality

Hak-Ju Lee—WAR (control)—

Not rated — never reached the majors.

ReceivedStatusSalary that yearPaidWAR$/WARSurplus
Sam Fuldpre-arb$418K$1.6M+2.0$0.8M$9.0M
Chris Archerprospectest.$10.5M+14.4$0.7M$86.0M
Brandon Guyerpre-arbest.$3.1M+4.7$0.7M$20.0M
Robinson Chirinospre-arbest.$0.4M-0.2—−$1.2M
Total over the control window$15.6M+20.9$0.7M$113.7M

What this became

  1. Matt Garza → TEXCarl Edwards, CHC ⇄ TEX, 2013+0.5 WAR
  2. Brandon Guyer → CLEBrandon Guyer, CLE ⇄ TBR, 2016+1.0 WAR
  3. Zac Rosscup → COLZac Rosscup, CHC ⇄ COL, 2017+0.0 WAR
  4. Chris Archer → PITTyler Glasnow, PIT ⇄ TBR, 2018+1.3 WAR
  5. Carl Edwards → SDPBrad Wieck, CHC ⇄ SDP, 2019-0.1 WAR
  6. Austin Meadows → DETIsaac Paredes, DET ⇄ TBR, 2022+0.1 WAR
  7. Tyler Glasnow → LADTyler Glasnow, LAD ⇄ TBR, 2023+6.5 WAR
  8. Shane Baz → BALShane Baz, BAL ⇄ TBR, 2025+2.6 WAR
  9. Manuel Margot → MINLAD ⇄ MIN, 2024-0.5 WAR
  10. Isaac Paredes → CHCIsaac Paredes, CHC ⇄ TBR, 2024+0.4 WAR
  11. Michael Forret → BALTyler Wells, BAL ⇄ TBR, 2026— WAR
  12. Isaac Paredes → HOUIsaac Paredes, CHC ⇄ HOU, 2024+6.1 WAR

Also that day

Guillermo Moscoso, OAK ⇄ TEX, 2011Athletics ⇄ Texas Rangers

The web around this trade

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All CHC ⇄ TBR tradesHow the scores work