June 20, 2006

J. P. Howell and 2 others: Kansas City RoyalsTampa Bay Rays

J. P. Howell stayed 5 seasons and was the best of it, and it still came out close to even.

franchise trade score

15far worse

Franchise trade score15

Rest of season18WAR in+0.2WAR out+0.6Net-0.4Net surplus−$1.2M

Short term81WAR in+1.3WAR out+0.5Net+0.8Net surplus$3.1M

Control window12WAR in+1.2WAR out+3.0Net-1.8Net surplus−$7.3M

Full tenure13WAR in+1.2WAR out+3.2Net-2.0Net surplus−$7.0M

franchise trade score

85far better

Franchise trade score85

Rest of season82WAR in+0.6WAR out+0.2Net+0.4Net surplus$1.2M

Short term19WAR in+0.5WAR out+1.3Net-0.8Net surplus−$3.1M

Control window88WAR in+3.0WAR out+1.2Net+1.8Net surplus$7.3M

Full tenure87WAR in+3.2WAR out+1.2Net+2.0Net surplus$7.0M

TBR reached the World Series in 2008

Kansas City Royals received

Joey GathrightCF · 25 · pre-arb · 4 yrs control+1.2WAR (control) · 3 yr70

Rest of season72WAR+0.2wRC+75PA263Surplus$0.7M

Short term75WAR+1.3wRC+85PA524Surplus$4.6M

Control window69WAR+1.2wRC+74PA839Surplus$3.9M

Full tenure68WAR+1.2wRC+74PA839Surplus$3.9M

On the day: +2.6 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ 77, salary $337K.

Fernando Cortez2B · 25 · pre-arb · 5 yrs control+0.0WAR (control) · 1 yr50

Rest of season47WAR0.0wRC+—PA0Surplus$0.0M

Short term50WAR+0.0wRC+83PA16Surplus−$0.2M

Control window49WAR+0.0wRC+83PA16Surplus−$0.2M

Full tenure49WAR+0.0wRC+83PA16Surplus−$0.2M

too little playing time to rate quality

On the day: -0.9 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ -44.

Received	Status	Salary that year	Paid	WAR	$/WAR	Surplus
Joey Gathright	pre-arb	$337K	$1.0M	+1.2	$0.8M	$3.9M
Fernando Cortez	pre-arb	est.	$0.4M	+0.0	—	−$0.2M
Total over the control window			$1.4M	+1.2	$1.1M	$3.7M

J. P. HowellP · 23 · pre-arb · 5 yrs control+3.0WAR (control) · 5 yr82

Rest of season86WAR+0.6FIP−89IP42Surplus$1.9M

Short term70WAR+0.5FIP−100IP93Surplus$1.3M

Control window86WAR+3.0FIP−94IP280Surplus$11.0M

Full tenure84WAR+3.2FIP−97IP330Surplus$10.6M

On the day: -0.1 WAR over the prior three seasons, wRC+ -100, FIP− 115.

Received	Status	Salary that year	Paid	WAR	$/WAR	Surplus
J. P. Howell	pre-arb	est.	$2.5M	+3.0	$0.8M	$11.0M
Total over the control window			$2.5M	+3.0	$0.8M	$11.0M

Nobody acquired here was traded on.

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